Water AlliesTier 1
at 紙牌屋店冠賽
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.2%
avg ELO +8.3 per match
expected value
58.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1293–1352
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1151
Q1 1247
Q3 1352
1409
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
